Kent St.

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	154.0
Current RPI:	154
Expected SOS:	107
Current SOS:	107
Current Record:	16-17
Expected Record:	16-17
Current Conf Record:	11-10
Expected Conf Record:	11-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-3
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	197
Expected OOC SOS:	116

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-17	154.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kent St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	N	78-111	W	100%
11-19	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	80-67	W	100%
11-21	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	66-70	L	0%
11-24	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	N	77-67	L	0%
11-25	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	N	75-60	L	0%
11-29	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	A	70-79	W	100%
12-2	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	72-62	W	100%
12-6	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	96-70	L	0%
12-9	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	63-54	L	0%
12-18	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	69-81	L	0%
12-21	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	H	79-78	W	100%
12-28	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	78-68	L	0%
1-2	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	A	75-61	L	0%
1-6	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	H	85-69	W	100%
1-9	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	A	80-69	L	0%
1-12	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	H	70-69	W	100%
1-16	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	H	73-71	W	100%
1-20	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	72-65	L	0%
1-23	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	H	88-80	W	100%
1-27	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	A	76-84	W	100%
1-30	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	H	82-79	W	100%
2-3	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	A	70-62	L	0%
2-6	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	H	67-71	L	0%
2-9	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	87-68	L	0%
2-13	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	A	84-72	L	0%
2-17	Akron (227.0)	MAC	H	78-68	W	100%
2-20	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	A	88-76	L	0%
2-24	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	H	64-63	W	100%
2-27	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	H	90-83	W	100%
3-2	Akron (227.0)	MAC	A	67-65	L	0%
3-5	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	H	61-59	W	100%
3-8	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	N	73-76	W	100%
3-9	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	N	78-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kent St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Kent St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Kent St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Kent St.	MAC	26.39	26.39	46.51	46.51	-1.84	-1.84
Buffalo	MAC	5.34	5.34	76.67	76.67	2.85	2.85
Ball St.	MAC	5.24	5.24	60.71	60.71	1.12	1.12
Akron	MAC	3.91	3.91	41.38	41.38	-0.67	-0.67
Bowling Green	MAC	3.87	3.87	46.43	46.43	-0.28	-0.28
Miami OH	MAC	3.86	3.86	44.83	44.83	-0.40	-0.40
Central Michigan	MAC	3.86	3.86	57.14	57.14	0.55	0.55
Ohio	MAC	3.84	3.84	42.86	42.86	-0.55	-0.55
Northern Illinois	MAC	3.81	3.81	35.71	35.71	-1.09	-1.09
Toledo	MAC	2.52	2.52	65.62	65.62	0.79	0.79
Western Michigan	MAC	2.42	2.42	51.72	51.72	0.08	0.08
Eastern Michigan	MAC	2.40	2.40	57.14	57.14	0.34	0.34
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.76	1.76	33.33	33.33	-0.59	-0.59
Wright St.	Horz	1.73	1.73	70.97	70.97	0.72	0.72
Valparaiso	MVC	1.66	1.66	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
Loyola Chicago	MVC	1.64	1.64	83.87	83.87	1.11	1.11
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.63	1.63	20.69	20.69	-0.96	-0.96
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.61	1.61	12.90	12.90	-1.20	-1.20
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.59	1.59	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.56	1.56	62.07	62.07	0.38	0.38
Albany	AE	1.52	1.52	66.67	66.67	0.51	0.51
Northeastern	CAA	1.52	1.52	67.74	67.74	0.54	0.54
Oregon St.	P12	1.52	1.52	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Xavier	BE	1.52	1.52	84.38	84.38	1.04	1.04
Green Bay	Horz	0.27	0.27	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
Milwaukee	Horz	0.27	0.27	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.27	0.27	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.22	0.22	32.14	32.14	-0.08	-0.08
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.19	0.19	20.00	20.00	-0.11	-0.11
Dayton	A10	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.16	0.16	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.15	0.15	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
USC	P12	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.10	0.10	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Notre Dame	ACC	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	15.62	15.62	-0.07	-0.07
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Vermont	AE	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.04	-0.04
San Jose St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
UNLV	MWC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00